Ce que la science peut apporter comme réponse aujourd'hui :
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/Ci-dessous, je vous ai mis les données concernant uniquement le vent, avec bien sûr les degrés de confiance
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.
The Working Group II contribution considers the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems, the observed impacts and future risks of climate change, and the potential for and limits to adaptation. The chapters of the report assess risks and opportunities for societies, economies, and ecosystems around the world.
source :
http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/ ... FGDall.pdf23.2.2.1.
Observed Climate Change.
Mean wind speeds have declined over Europe over recent decades (Vautard et al., 2010) with low confidence due to problematic anemometer data and climate variability (SREX Section 3.3).
Bett et al (2013) did not find any trend in windspeed using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis.
23.2.2.3.
Projected Changes in Climate Extremes.
In winter, small increases in extreme wind speed are projected for Central and Northern Europe [medium confidence], connected to changes in storm tracks [medium confidence].
Other parts of Europe and seasons are less clear in sign with a small decreasing trend in southern Europe [low confidence].
23.3.1.3.
Windstorms.
Several studies project an overall increase storm hazard in northwest Europe [23.2.2.3] and in economic and insured losses [AR5 WG2 Chapter 17.7.3], but natural variations in frequencies are large.
There is no evidence that the observed increase in European storm losses is due to anthropogenic climate change (Barredo, 2010).
There is a lack of information for other storm types, such as tornadoes and thunderstorms.
23.3.4.
Energy Production, Transmission, and Use.
On wind energy, no significant changes are expected before 2050, at least in Northern Europe. After 2050, in line with AR4, the wind energy potential in Northern, Continental and most of Atlantic Europe may increase during winter and decrease in summer.
For Southern Europe, a decrease in both seasons is expected, except for the Aegean Sea and Adriatic coast where a significant increase during summer is possible.